The Minnesota Senate race just might come down to the wire, and a pair of new polls suggest that this one is anyone’s game at the moment.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/15-16, likely voters):
Al Franken (DFL): 41
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 39
Dean Barkley (I): 18
(MoE: ±4.5%)
And SurveyUSA (10/16-18, likely voters, 9/30-10/1 in parens):
Al Franken (DFL): 39 (33)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (43)
Dean Barkley (I): 18 (19)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
SurveyUSA has given us a few polls that seem to be skewed in the Republican direction from Minnesota this year, but this one is a bit more in line with other recent polls.
While both polls find Dean Barkley taking an equal share of the vote, they don’t quite agree on the source of his support. In the R2K poll, Barkley takes a greater share of Democratic votes (15%) than Republican votes (8%), while his share is a bit more even in SUSA’s polling (13% of Dems and 11% of GOPers). Whether or not those voters stick with Barkley in November (and where they end up instead) is the true million dollar question here.
Bonus findings: Obama leads McCain by 52-39 in the R2K poll, and 50-44 according to SUSA.